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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighMediumHigh
Timedifferent
10-30 min je ItemMehrere Tage bis Wochen2-4 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
1-82-62-63-10
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesMORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic RecommendationsBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action BacklogEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
Root causeSafetySystemicIncident
Root causeSafetyIncident
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
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