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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | Half day | 60-180 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 4-20 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |