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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration of a Learning Card with four fields for hypothesis, observation, insight, and action.
Product Discovery
Learning Card
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Growth Experiment workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
Growth Experiment
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When growth ideas surface quickly, the temptation to build immediately instead of learning is high. A Growth Experiment frames an assumption so target group, lever, and measurement are clear before the first deployment.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item25-40 min1-5 Tage1-2 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
1-81-5Nutzertraffic1-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesLearning Card with evidence and next actionInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteExperiment card, Result summary, Next bet
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
MarketingGrowthExperimentsLearning
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