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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 15-45 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanStartupValidationMVP | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |