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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanStartupValidationMVP | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting |