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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-90 min | laufend | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-6 | 2-12 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | EstimationForecastingFlow | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |