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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Innovation Lean Startup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-90 min | 2-4 h | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-6 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | LeanStartupValidationMVP |