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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-90 min | 60-120 min | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationForecastingFlow |