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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Knowledge Modeling Knowledge Mapping |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Systems Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | Systems Mapping arranges elements, relationships, and boundaries so a complex field becomes legible at a glance. The overview stabilizes the overall picture before detail work or steering begins. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 2-4 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 3-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Knowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | System Map, Dependencies, Leverage Points |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | KnowledgeMappingRisk | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | Systems thinkingMappingBoundariesChange |