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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Engineering Kanban |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When work sits in too many parallel streams, throughput suffers and no one sees the bottlenecks. Kanban makes the flow of work visible and limits overload so a system becomes calmer and more predictable. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | Ongoing | 2-4 h | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 3-8 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Kanban board, WIP policies, Flow metrics | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | FlowVisual managementDelivery | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationForecastingFlow |