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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration of a four-column Kanban board with limited ongoing work, a visible blocker and a review loop.
Engineering
Kanban
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.When work sits in too many parallel streams, throughput suffers and no one sees the bottlenecks. Kanban makes the flow of work visible and limits overload so a system becomes calmer and more predictable.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumMediumHigh
Timedifferent
10-30 min je ItemOngoing60-120 min2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
1-82-122-83-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesKanban board, WIP policies, Flow metricsConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsFuture Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
FlowVisual managementDelivery
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
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