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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Jobs to Be Done |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When switching motives and progress are unclear, it reconstructs the situation from real customer circumstances. It shows why a switch happens and what kind of progress is being sought. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 Wochen | 15-45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 5-12 Interviews | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Job Stories, Outcome Statements, Opportunity List | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | CustomerOutcomesNeeds | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting |