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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-90 min | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 4-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |