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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-90 min | 45-90 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |