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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Strategy GIST Planning |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | GIST Planning helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities. It links customer value, product logic, and decision priorities, and captures the result as goals, an idea bank, and a step-project list. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | Wochen bis Monate je Goal | 15-45 min | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 1-8 | 2-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Goals, Idea bank, Step-project list, Tasks, Learning reports | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | RoadmapOutcomesPlanningExperiments | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow |