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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Strategy GIST Planning |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | GIST Planning helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities. It links customer value, product logic, and decision priorities, and captures the result as goals, an idea bank, and a step-project list. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | Wochen bis Monate je Goal | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Goals, Idea bank, Step-project list, Tasks, Learning reports | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | RoadmapOutcomesPlanningExperiments | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |