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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Strategy GIST Planning |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | GIST Planning helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities. It links customer value, product logic, and decision priorities, and captures the result as goals, an idea bank, and a step-project list. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | Wochen bis Monate je Goal | 1-4 Wochen | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Goals, Idea bank, Step-project list, Tasks, Learning reports | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | RoadmapOutcomesPlanningExperiments | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |