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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Incident Command workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Incident Command
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.During an acute incident with several people involved, the method creates a clear leadership and communication structure. It reduces chaos when fast coordination and clean situational awareness are both needed at once.In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item30-120 minAs neededHalber Tag
Participantsdifferent
1-82-64-155-20
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesObservation Notes, Improvement IdeasIncident Log, Action Tracker, Stakeholder UpdatesSimulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated Runbooks
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
LeanObservationProcessOperations
IncidentOperationsReliability
ResilienceOperationsIncident
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