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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHighLow
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item30-120 minHalber Tag15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
1-82-65-202-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesObservation Notes, Improvement IdeasSimulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
LeanObservationProcessOperations
ResilienceOperationsIncident
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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