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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Blameless Postmortem workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Blameless Postmortem
Incident Command workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Incident Command
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.After an incident with damage or a near miss, the method creates a sober field for learning without assigning blame. It directs attention to the course of events, conditions, and effective countermeasures.During an acute incident with several people involved, the method creates a clear leadership and communication structure. It reduces chaos when fast coordination and clean situational awareness are both needed at once.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item30-120 min30-90 minAs needed
Participantsdifferent
1-82-63-124-15
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesObservation Notes, Improvement IdeasPostmortem Doc, Action Items, TimelineIncident Log, Action Tracker, Stakeholder Updates
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
LeanObservationProcessOperations
Site Reliability EngineeringIncidentLearningReliability
IncidentOperationsReliability
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