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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Blameless Postmortem workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Blameless Postmortem
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.After an incident with damage or a near miss, the method creates a sober field for learning without assigning blame. It directs attention to the course of events, conditions, and effective countermeasures.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumLow
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item30-120 min30-90 min15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
1-82-63-122-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesObservation Notes, Improvement IdeasPostmortem Doc, Action Items, TimelineRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
LeanObservationProcessOperations
Site Reliability EngineeringIncidentLearningReliability
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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