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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Gap Analysis method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
GAP Analysis
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing.Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item1-3 h0.5-2 Tage1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
1-82-84-126-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesGap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk NotesScenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
StrategyAnalysisPlanning
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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