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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 60-120 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 4-12 Experten | 1-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationExpertsForecasting | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |