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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 60-120 min | 0.5-3 Tage | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 5-15 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |