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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 60-120 min | laufend | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 2-12 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |