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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 60-120 min | Half day | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |