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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 60-120 min | 1-2 h | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |