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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 2-4 h | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |