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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 2-4 h | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | LeanStartupValidationMVP | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |