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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Business Strategy 5-Minuten VC-Check |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The 5-Minute VC Check clarifies opportunities and strategic options at the earliest idea stage. It compares problem quality, customer willingness to pay, alternatives, differentiation, and market potential, and captures the result as a VC-check note, go/sharpen/park decision, and risk list. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 5-15 min | 15-45 min | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-5 | 1-8 | 2-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | VC-check note, Go/sharpen/park decision, Risk and assumption list, Next validation step | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | StartupValidationCompetition | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow |