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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-5 Tage | 45-90 min | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |