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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Knowledge Modeling Event Modeling |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Event Modeling connects business workflows with commands, events, and views into one coherent mental model. It helps design behavior, UI, and technical slices from the same underlying logic. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 2-6 h | laufend | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-12 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Event Model, UI Flow, Commands, Read Models | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EventsBlueprintDomain-Driven DesignBehavior | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationExpertsForecasting |