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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Learning Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 60-120 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 25-40 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Learning Card with evidence and next action |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning |