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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 60-120 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | LeanStartupValidationMVP | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |