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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Engineering Kanban |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When work sits in too many parallel streams, throughput suffers and no one sees the bottlenecks. Kanban makes the flow of work visible and limits overload so a system becomes calmer and more predictable. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 60-120 min | Ongoing | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-12 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Kanban board, WIP policies, Flow metrics | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | FlowVisual managementDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |