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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |