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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumMediumHigh
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item60-120 min45-60 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
1-82-82-81-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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