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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Ideal Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate | 15-45 min | 15-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 1-8 | 2-9 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | AgileDiscoveryDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortAgile |