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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 15-45 min | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |