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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making OODA Loop |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 15-60 min je Zyklus | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting |