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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 1-6 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionTreeOptions | ChangeDecisionStrategy |