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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |  Decision Making Decision Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions | DecisionTreeOptions |