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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-5 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |