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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
A3 Problem-Solving workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
A3 Problem Solving
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighMediumLow
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item1-4 Wochen45-90 min15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
1-86-30 Experten2-52-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesA3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause AnalysisRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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