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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery MVP Test Matrix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When several minimal variants compete to answer the same question, it makes comparing and choosing between them cleaner. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Test Matrix and a Test Plan. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min | 45-60 min | 45-75 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Test Matrix, Test Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | DecisionTreeOptions | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryOptions |