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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 60-180 min | laufend | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-20 | 2-12 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | EstimationForecastingFlow | SensemakingDecisionRationale |