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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 2-6 h | 30-60 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-10 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |