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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations 5 Whys |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 2-6 h | 15-30 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Root cause notes, Countermeasures | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |