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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-60 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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