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| Criterion | ![]() Decision Making Three-Point Estimation | ![]() Knowledge Modeling Concept Mapping | ![]() Decision Making Red Teaming | ![]() Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Concept Mapping arranges terms and relationships in a network that makes subject-matter connections tangible. It fits when a topic needs to be understood structurally rather than linearly. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-2 h | 1-4 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Concept Map, Relationship Labels, Knowledge Gaps | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | KnowledgeConceptsMappingSensemaking | RiskDecisionSensemaking | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |



